Every few years, a story makes the rounds that the plastic bricks in the basement might be worth a small fortune. There is a real study behind the excitement, but the fine print matters just as much as the headline number.

The study is called “LEGO – The Toy of Smart Investors,” written by Victoria Dobrynskaya and Julia Kishilova and published in 2020 as an HSE University working paper. The researchers looked at 2,322 LEGO sets released between 1981 and 2014. They found that, over the period from 1987 to 2015, retired sets earned an average return of at least 11% per year, which works out to about 8% once inflation is taken out.

That is a striking number for a toy. But an average is just that, an average, and it can hide a lot of sets that did not do nearly as well.

The Catch In The Word “Average”

When you hear that sets averaged at least 11% a year, it is natural to picture every box on your shelf growing by that much. That is not what an average means. If some sets climb sharply in value and others barely move, the overall number can look wonderful even though plenty of individual sets were disappointments.

A more recent warning supports this. Brick Fanatics, in an article by Matt Yeo dated November 20, 2025, cautions that a set being retired does not reliably raise its value, and it notes that some sets retired in 2024 actually dropped in price. In other words, the label “retired” is not a magic spell.

It is also worth remembering the dates. The study covers sets released from 1981 to 2014 and returns measured over 1987 to 2015. It is a look back at a particular stretch of time. Past results are not a guarantee of future ones, in toys or anywhere else.

What This Means If You Collect

If you enjoy building and displaying sets, the study is a pleasant bonus, not a plan. The surest way to be happy with a toy purchase is to buy something you will enjoy whether or not its value changes. A set you love that goes up in price is a treat. A set you bought only as an investment that goes down is just a box taking up space.

• Do not buy a set only because it is about to retire. Ask yourself whether you would still want it if it never gained a cent.
• Remember what you pay for storage. Sealed boxes take up room, and a damp basement or hot attic can damage cardboard and artwork.
• Keep the box in good shape and keep all the pieces and instructions together. Condition and completeness matter to buyers.
• Before you sell, check what similar sets have actually sold for, not what hopeful sellers are asking.
• Do not put in money you cannot afford to have tied up or to lose.

If You Already Have Old Sets

If you or your kids built sets years ago, you may have more than you think tucked away. Before you decide anything, take stock. Group the pieces by set if you can, look for any instruction booklets and boxes, and note whether anything is missing. A complete set in good condition will be a very different thing from a mixed bin of bricks.

Then decide what the sets mean to you. For some families, the right answer is to hand them to the next generation and let the building continue. For others, selling to a collector who will treasure them makes sense. Either way, you are making the choice with open eyes.

Questions Worth Asking Before You Buy

If a headline about investment returns has you eyeing the toy aisle, slow down and ask a few plain questions. What is the set going to cost today, and what would it have to sell for later to make the purchase worthwhile? Who will buy it, and how will you reach them? How long are you willing to wait? A toy is not like money in a savings account. You cannot simply cash it out on a certain day, and the price you hope for depends on someone else wanting it at the moment you need to sell.

There are also practical costs that never show up in a headline average. Selling usually involves fees and shipping, and you need to pack a large box carefully so it arrives undamaged. Those expenses can take a real bite out of any gain. A buyer who counts only the sticker price and the eventual sale price will overestimate the profit.

None of this is meant to spoil the fun. It is meant to keep the fun from turning into a regret. The research shows that, on average, certain sets did well in a particular period.

The Bottom Line

The research behind the buzz is genuine, and it is fair to say that retired sets averaged at least 11% a year in that study. But the same average that makes a nice headline also hides sets that lost out, and the recent caution from Brick Fanatics is a good reminder. Treat a toy collection as a hobby that might pay off, not as a sure thing.

Build what you love, store it with care, and if it also happens to grow in value, consider it a happy surprise.

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