Every collector has a story about the one that got away. For one Pokemon fan, it is not just one card but a whole handful that he sold in early 2020, when he needed to make room or make money, and that today have climbed to dramatic estimated prices.
@thricebakedjake pulled up his old sales receipts and compared them with current market estimates, item by item.
@thricebakedjake
Four sales from the spring of 2020
He stands in front of shelves stacked with Pokemon boxes and collectibles and asks how much he regrets selling his collection in 2020. Then he walks through four sales, with each receipt shown on screen and a current price estimate beside it.
- A Cosmic Eclipse booster box, sold in March 2020 for 78 dollars. He says it would be worth roughly 4,500 dollars now.
- A Scream promo Pikachu graded PSA 10, sold in March 2020 for 110 dollars. He says it would be worth roughly 16,000 dollars now.
- A shiny Rayquaza Pikachu card graded PSA 10, sold for exactly 100 dollars. He estimates it at roughly 21,000 dollars today.
- A Mario Pikachu card set, sold raw in April 2020 for 135 dollars. He estimates the set at roughly 25,000 dollars today.
The total, he says, is that if he had just kept these four items he would be up an estimated 66,000 dollars in 2026. His delivery is rueful, a mix of disbelief and humor, which is probably how most collectors would feel looking at the same numbers.
A note about those numbers
These are his estimates, based on the market figures he displays, and they should be read as rough snapshots rather than guaranteed values. The market for trading cards moves quickly. Prices can jump on news, trends or a surge of new collectors, and they can fall just as fast. An estimated value is not the same as a sale price, and the gap between the two can be large.
What PSA 10 and raw actually mean
Two terms in the story are worth knowing. A raw card is an ungraded card, sold as is, with condition judged by the buyer. A graded card has been sent to a grading company, which authenticates it, assigns a numeric condition score and seals it in a protective case. PSA is one of the best known grading services, and a 10 is the top grade on its scale, reserved for cards in essentially perfect condition.
Grading can raise confidence and often raises value, but it costs money and takes time, and not every card is worth grading. The population count, shown as a pop number in some listings, tells you how many examples a grader has recorded at a given grade. Lower counts can mean more scarcity.
Lessons for anyone with a card collection
- Research before you sell. Check recent sold listings, not just asking prices, and compare cards of the same grade.
- Keep records of what you bought and sold, because receipts help with both memories and taxes.
- Protect what you keep with sleeves, rigid holders and cool dry storage away from sunlight.
- Decide on a goal. Collecting for fun, for sentimental value and for resale are three different plans.
- Do not let hindsight spoil the hobby. Almost every collector sells something too early, and few can predict what will rise.
Common questions
Should I grade every card? No. Many collectors grade only cards that are valuable, sentimental or in very strong condition, because grading fees can outweigh the gain on a common card.
Is it a good idea to treat cards as an investment? Prices can rise, but they can also fall, and the market has seen big swings. Many experienced collectors suggest buying what you enjoy and treating any gain as a bonus.
How can I check whether a price estimate is realistic? Look at several recent completed sales for the same card and grade, and be cautious about any single number.
The takeaway
The most useful part of this story is the honesty. Selling cards for under 150 dollars each in 2020 was a perfectly reasonable decision at the time, and the estimates now are just that, estimates. The real lesson is to know what you own, keep it well, and enjoy the hobby for what it is, because nobody has a crystal ball.
Credit for the original post goes to @thricebakedjake on TikTok.
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